Toronto Blue Jays: Contenders errrrr......?
How soon is TOO SOON to call the Toronto Blue Jays true contenders in the American League?
The question arose today on "The Rod Pedersen Show" and was met with some solid debate, and it got me thinking... is making the playoffs in the MLB enough to consider yourself a contender? What type of criteria are involved in that distinction?
Well, let me start by saying I think it's too soon to put them on that type of pedestal. This team is young and clearly inexperienced. You can see it by the roller coaster of results that go into every single game. The level of consistency in their performance just isn't there in order to call them a true contender similar to the Dodgers, Yankees, or... Houston Astros the last couple of years...
So what do you call them then?
I look at this Blue Jays team as one that is on the cusp of something truly special. A years-long run of success. But it's just not that time yet. Playoffs? Maybe, but to be considered a true contender there's more to it.
Something else that came up on today's show was a chat with Saskatchewan Rush GM Derek Keenan. We discussed his team's long-term sustained success and what it took to become that type of franchise.
His answer... "We've made pretty good decisions on personnel, on character, both through trades, free agency, and the draft and we've been fortunate to build a strong foundation that now is at a stage where... I'm not going to call it a rebuild... but we need to re-stock the shelves."
Key word: FOUNDATION. Every perennial contender has 4-5 position players and 4-5 pitchers that come back every year and dominate. The rest of the roster can be shifted around year to year.
The Jays have the beginnings of their foundation in place and it's obvious who is a part of that. You have the core on the field with Bichette, Biggio, Guerrero Jr., and Gurriel Jr. This core group of four could potentially be your top of the lineup hitters for the next 10 years if you play your cards right, but they are all YOUNG. Gurriel is the oldest of those guys at 26. Not to mention the recent prospects acquired through the draft that could take roster spots within the next 2 seasons.
Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk appear to be coming into their own as supporting pieces and leaders in their own right, and then role players like Rowdy Tellez, Travis Shaw, and Joe Panik among others give the Jays some decent bench depth. So at the plate and on the field, the team looks... pretty good right now with a VERY bright future.
Then you look at the pitching staff... well... it's just not there. Yes, Hyun-Jin Ryu has given them a chance to win every start, and Taijuan Walker has been good since coming over from Seattle. But after that, you have a group of guys who would be fifth starters on a lot of teams (if that) who are more-or-less a mystery box every time they step on the mound.
The strength of the Blue Jays pitching group is in the prospects and youth that are on the way. Nate Pearson, Alek Manoah, T.J. Zeuch, Julian Merryweather (who was acquired in the Josh Donaldson trade), Jordan Romano, Sean Reid-Foley... these are names that are still developing in the system. However, in saying that, most of these guys are STILL 2-3 years away from regular MLB roster spots and then how long does it take for them to reach their ceiling? With pitchers, you simply never know.
The key to this franchise's sustained future success will be when these young pitchers can step into prominent roles or whether the team decides to pull the trigger on a few big trades to bring in veteran, established pitchers to give the young lineup a chance to win every single night.
So when we ask the question, "When will the Blue Jays be a contender?" the answer for me is:
Let's have fun watching this exciting, dynamic young group of players develop into winners because in probably no more than 2 seasons Blue Jays fans could be in for a long run of playoff appearances.
Then... we can call this club "contenders".
- Clark
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